So this time I’ll be thinking about why Labour lost and where they go from here.
There have been a few theories expounded about why Labour lost. Was it media bias? Jeremy Corbyn? Labour’s manifesto promises? Brexit? To some extent I’d say there’s something all of those factors but they all interacted with each other to make everything worse.
Starting with the media a large chunk was obviously in the tank for Johnson. When it comes to newspapers the Express, Telegraph, Daily Mail and Sun certainly were. Counterbalancing that the Guardian and Mirror were backing Labour. The Independent felt like they were trying to be fairly neutral and I admit I don’t have a good feeling for the Times since it’s behind a paywall.
When it comes to broadcast media Channel 4 and Sky did a good job of covering the issues and the news. However the BBC are still the heavyweight broadcaster in the UK and and their coverage was poor and poor in ways that helped the Tories and undoubtedly hurt Labour. Key failings included an unwillingness to call barefaced lies what they were and to headline with superficial analysis on what the Tories Brexit plans would actually mean. For all that, the Tories still aren’t satisfied and are toying with the idea of further neutering the BBC
However I think the hostile media landscape is something any Labour leader will have to navigate. Under Ed Milliband’s leadership we heard a lot about “Red Ed” and The Daily Mail published a hit job on his dad stating that he hated Britain – a man who served in the Royal Navy in World War 2 and then taught at LSE for years.
This time around though the attacks stuck to a greater extent due to Corbyn’s particular political weaknesses. This was an election with a large component of culture war and Corbyn is a man who has openly said he’d prefer it if the UK was a Republic, who has worn a white rather than a red poppy in the past and whose foreign policy positions included opposing the Falklands War. None of these (and similar issues) have any direct bearing on Labour policy – especially since Corbyn started wearing a red poppy and has said that the current popularity of the Royal Family made republicanism a dormant issue for him. However they allowed sections of the media to successfully paint Corbyn as an out of touch, elitist lefty.
Another key Corbyn weakness was that his history on the EU is incoherent at best. Historically he was a left wing Eurosceptic. He then campaigned for Remain in the referendum, although his heart didn’t really appear in it. Following the Referendum result he then called for the immediate activation of Article 50 to leave (a VERY bad policy position given we had done no planning at that point). He ultimately adopted a policy of a “jobs first” Brexit that eventually expanded to include a second referendum. This muddled message was always going to be hard to sell to leave voters compared to a (mendacious) message of “Get Brexit Done” from the Tories under a leader who had been at the forefront of the Leave campaign.
This mixed messaging also gave the impression that Corbyn himself is not particularly competent. Also not helped by the fact he’s not a particularly strong performer in parliament or in interviews (although Johnson seems to be even worse – which is why he was hidden away for large chunks of the campaign). This perception of incompetence then meant people just didn’t believe that Labour manifesto pledges could or would be implemented. The fact the manifesto contained several ambitious goals only amplified this problem.
Finally we come to the important topic of antisemitism. I’m not aware of anything suggesting Corbyn himself hates Jews but the lacklustre response to the problems within the party seems to be because he and his closest advisors want to protect some of their allies who actively do hate Jews. This is obviously unacceptable. Someone who is willing to cover up the racism of others is racist themselves. The only more charitable explanation I can think of is that he has been so blinded by friendship he can’t even see the racism of the likes of Chris Williamson or Ken Livingstone. Not an ideal trait in someone who is aiming to be PM!
It feels slightly grubby talking about the electoral impact of antisemitism but for completeness in a post about why Labour lost the election I will look at it briefly. In practice, I don’t know how much the antisemitism issue hurt Labour electorally. I don’t recall exit polls stating this as a large factor in voting. Obviously many Jewish voters will have been turned off but Jews are a small minority of the population. Some in the wider electorate will also have found it impossible to vote Labour. However, I suspect, given the Tories own issues, many will have chosen to hold their noses and vote Labour tactically where necessary.
So far I’ve been very critical of Labour and Corbyn. But before I go further I want to be clear that many of the most substantial criticisms apply with even more force to Boris Johnson and the Tories. The Tories are not only racist but have implemented racist policies. The “Go Home” vans and the Windrush scandal were all due to policies introduced under Theresa May as Home Secretary while David Cameron was Prime Minister. Johnson has a history of casually racist statements about about Muslims and Africans, while his novel featured the trope of Jews controlling the media.
When it comes to competence Johnson’s tenure as Foreign Secretary saw a British citizen having her jail sentence extended by Iran after he mistakenly stated she was in the country teaching journalism. A move that he has done little to try to rectify. Many of his ministers are little better. Dominic Raab’s admission that he hadn’t realised the Dover-Calais crossing was so important to UK trade stands out in particular.
On top of all of that Johnson has no compunction about lying. He was sacked as a shadow minister under Michael Howard for lying and previously sacked by the Times for making up elements of a front page story.
This is one area where print media bias and the BBC’s unwillingness to call out Tory blunders and lies definitely helped Johnson and the Tories. They helped hide the incompetence and when you are willing to lie mercilessly having the BBC unwilling to call a lie a lie is a big advantage.
So where does all this leave Labour going forward?
In some respects Labour can take comfort that some of the particular weaknesses of Corbyn (the white poppy issue, abolition of the Royal Family and unpopular historic foreign policy positions) are unlikely to be replicated by whoever the next leader will be. Nevertheless Labour should be trying to weed out candidates who are weak on similar culture war issues given they are unlikely to impact the way they would govern in any case.
I’d also hope that all wings of the party could agree that the next leader should be a strong media and Commons performer. Especially as this is appears to be an area of weakness for Johnson himself.
When it comes to antisemitism some of Corbyn’s biggest fans are in denial. However the next leader needs to act decisively on the issue. Both as a matter of good politics to try to win back trust from Jewish voters and arrest the bad headlines but more importantly as a moral matter. Nothing in Labour’s policy agenda requires antisemitism or for antisemites to be coddled.
We now move onto the more contentious issues of policy.
In my view Brexit is likely to hurt and due to Tory ideology and incompetence it will hurt more than it has to. Labour should not be helping the Tories and must oppose the Withdrawal Bill so that if and when things ultimately go wrong they are positioned to capitalise rather than being lumped with a share of the blame.
When it comes to other areas of policy Labour should continue to oppose austerity to the extent it continues under Johnson. I’d also suggest dialling back on the more ambitious pledges from the manifesto until the public trusts that they can be implemented. If Labour win power they could try to implement some of those ideas. Once they are seen to work this may open the door to further ambitious programs being seen as feasible.
This area will be one where the most infighting could occur between different wings of the party. Centrists are likely to want to get scrap many manifesto pledges for good whereas the left wing are likely to be suspicious of and hostile to any attempt to soft pedal the Corbyn economic agenda.
Bexley's cunning plan 